INDONESIAN RUPIAH OUTLOOK
Gold, IHSG, Stock Investments, Stock Recommendations - Bank Indonesia (BI) released Indonesia's Foreign Debt (ULN) data at the end of the first quarter of 2016 at US $ 316.0 billion, up 5.7% (yoy). The ratio of foreign debt to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at the end of the first quarter of 2016 was 36.5%, slightly increased from 36.0% at the end of the fourth quarter of 2015. Indonesia's foreign debt is dominated by long-term foreign debt, which up to the end of the first quarter of 2016 reached US $ 277.9 billion (87.9% of total foreign debt) or up 7.9% (yoy).
Is Rupiah staying strong?
The Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) reference rate indicates that the rupiah closed lower at Rp13,467 per US dollar on Thursday (19/05/2016). The weakening of the rupiah is due to the revelation of Jannet Yellen - Fed officials that interest rates will be raised again, which means the US dollar will strengthen again if the rise in interest rates the federation occurs. Surely this is responded by speculators to prefer to buy US Dollar.
How about the target?
Astronacci saw that the rupiah a few days ago has reached the time bottom of penguatanya and currently the rupiah will again weaken. Planetary cycle mercury retrograde supports rupiah depreciation against US Dollar. The weakening of the rupiah will continue in the next 20 trading days.
stock-idx analysis today
Figure 1: Daily Chart of USD / IDR (Source: Astronacci, AMTA Data)
Rupiah is seen forming bullish continuation ab = cd pattern in ascending broadening wedge pattern. Ideally the Rupiah will continue to weaken (up) towards the resistance area at the level of Rp13,900 - Rp14,100.
What is the effect for the market?
Strengthening the USD against the rupiah there is a tendency will bring stocks from CPO-based issuers. These stocks will go up despite lagging or in slower terms. Stocks that will get fresh air are AALI and SGRO. The target increase of this stock is about 6-8% and will be reached before the end of June. Then how the strategy? SGRO can start to buy on weakness while AALI still have to wait from pattern formation.
Is Rupiah staying strong?
The Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) reference rate indicates that the rupiah closed lower at Rp13,467 per US dollar on Thursday (19/05/2016). The weakening of the rupiah is due to the revelation of Jannet Yellen - Fed officials that interest rates will be raised again, which means the US dollar will strengthen again if the rise in interest rates the federation occurs. Surely this is responded by speculators to prefer to buy US Dollar.
How about the target?
Astronacci saw that the rupiah a few days ago has reached the time bottom of penguatanya and currently the rupiah will again weaken. Planetary cycle mercury retrograde supports rupiah depreciation against US Dollar. The weakening of the rupiah will continue in the next 20 trading days.
stock-idx analysis today
Figure 1: Daily Chart of USD / IDR (Source: Astronacci, AMTA Data)
Rupiah is seen forming bullish continuation ab = cd pattern in ascending broadening wedge pattern. Ideally the Rupiah will continue to weaken (up) towards the resistance area at the level of Rp13,900 - Rp14,100.
What is the effect for the market?
Strengthening the USD against the rupiah there is a tendency will bring stocks from CPO-based issuers. These stocks will go up despite lagging or in slower terms. Stocks that will get fresh air are AALI and SGRO. The target increase of this stock is about 6-8% and will be reached before the end of June. Then how the strategy? SGRO can start to buy on weakness while AALI still have to wait from pattern formation.
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